On Thursday 5 November 2026, at noon, the Bank of England announces its next interest rate decision. Bank Rate has sat at 3.75% since December 2025, and this time the markets expect it to move. A Reuters poll of economists in mid-October found 54 of 63 expecting a rise to 4%, and traders were pricing roughly 95% odds of a quarter-point rise by 20 October.
If you freelance in the UK, that decision reaches your bank balance through three routes: your mortgage, your savings, and the interest you can legally charge a client who pays late. The third one is the route most coverage gets wrong, so we will start there. And there is one thing to do before Thursday that costs nothing and takes five minutes.
This is general information, not legal or financial advice. If the amount is large or the situation is disputed, get proper professional advice.
What we know, and what is only expected
Bank Rate is 3.75%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held it there on 17 September 2026, by a 6 to 3 vote: three members (Greene, Mann and Pill) voted to raise it to 4% then. The Bank’s own page lists the next decision as 5 November 2026, published with the minutes and the November Monetary Policy Report. The decision after that is 17 December. Figures checked on the Bank of England website on 31 October 2026.
Why does the market expect a rise now? The Bank’s own words give the reason. Inflation stood at 3.1% when the MPC last met in September, and the Bank said it expected inflation to rise further from that level, driven by energy prices that remain volatile because of the conflict in the Middle East. The Bank’s page now puts the current inflation rate at 3.5%, against its 2% target. Governor Andrew Bailey said on 17 September that the longer energy prices stay high, the more likely the Bank will need to raise Bank Rate to bring inflation back to target.
None of that is a promise. The MPC has held Bank Rate at 3.75% at six consecutive meetings in 2026, most recently on 17 September, and the 6 to 3 vote then shows the committee is split. Rabobank expects a rise to 4.00% in November and another quarter point to 4.25% in February 2027, but other forecasters are less certain. Treat a rise as the likely outcome, not a done deal. The practical question is what changes for you in each case.
The late-payment twist most coverage misses
Here is the part that matters most to this site’s readers, and the part I have seen reported wrongly more than once.
Statutory interest on a late commercial invoice is 8% a year over Bank Rate. With Bank Rate at 3.75%, that is 11.75% a year for any debt that goes late in 2026. But the rate you can charge does not track Bank Rate day by day. Under the Late Payment of Commercial Debts (Rate of Interest) (No. 3) Order 2002, the Bank Rate that counts is the one in force on 30 June (for interest starting between 1 July and 31 December) or on 31 December (for interest starting between 1 January and 30 June). The rate is fixed for a six-month block.
So a rise on 5 November changes nothing for invoices that are already late, and nothing for invoices that go late before the end of the year. Those still run at 11.75%. The rise only feeds through for debts that go late from 1 January 2027, using the Bank Rate in force on 31 December 2026. If Bank Rate is 4% on that date, statutory interest for debts going late in the first half of 2027 becomes 12% a year.
That timing matters twice over. First, do not re-issue invoices or re-calculate claims on the strength of a November headline: the law fixes your rate by reference date, and a common mistake is to apply the Bank Rate on the day the debt went overdue. Second, put 2 January 2027 in your diary. That is the day to check the rate that will apply to any invoice going late in the first half of next year, and to update the figure in your payment terms and chasing templates.
A worked example, using the rate that applies today. A £10,000 invoice paid 60 days late: £10,000 × 11.75% ÷ 365 × 60 = £193.15 in interest. Add the fixed compensation of £100 for a debt of £10,000 or more, and you are entitled to add £293.15. The fixed sums are £40 for debts under £1,000, £70 for £1,000 to £9,999.99, and £100 for £10,000 or more, one sum per late invoice, on top of the interest. Both figures come from GOV.UK’s late commercial payments guidance and the Late Payment of Commercial Debts (Interest) Act 1998. Our late payment interest calculator works this out for any invoice, and our guide to your late payment rights explains when an invoice legally counts as late.
Your mortgage: only trackers move on Thursday
If your mortgage tracks Bank Rate, a quarter-point rise feeds through to your payments quickly. On a £200,000 tracker balance, 0.25 percentage points is around £500 a year, or about £42 a month, before any lender margin changes. That is simple arithmetic on the balance, not a quote: your lender will confirm the exact figure.
If you are on a fixed rate, Thursday changes nothing about your current payments. Fixed mortgage pricing follows swap rates, which move on expectations of where Bank Rate will be over the next two or five years, not on one decision. The November Monetary Policy Report, published alongside the decision, matters more for your next fix than the rate itself, because it shows where the Bank thinks rates are heading. If your fix ends after November, read the report’s forecasts before you decide when to lock in a new deal, and talk to a broker rather than guessing from the headline.
The same logic applies to business borrowing. Overdrafts, credit cards and invoice finance do not track Bank Rate neatly: lenders set those rates on their own risk pricing. A rise may push them up, but slowly and unevenly. If you rely on an overdraft to bridge the gap between invoicing and payment, the cheaper fix is usually to shorten the gap, not to shop for a marginally cheaper overdraft. Our guide to chasing late payments covers the routine that does that.
Your savings: check the rate, not the headline
This is the five-minute job to do before Thursday. Log in to your savings account and read the actual interest rate on it today, then compare it with Bank Rate at 3.75%.
When Bank Rate is flat, savings providers do not have to do anything, and many use the quiet period to drift rates down on older accounts while advertising a competitive rate on a new one. A rise on 5 November does not oblige your provider to pass it on, and a hold does not oblige them to leave your rate alone. The number that matters is the one on your account, not the one on the news.
If you keep a tax pot, the same check applies twice over. Freelancers who set aside 20 to 30% of each invoice for tax are often sitting on the largest cash balance they hold all year, and it is frequently in the account that pays the least. Moving a tax pot to an account that pays closer to Bank Rate is one of the few genuinely free gains in freelance finance. Just keep the money accessible: a tax bill is not a sum to lock away for a year.
One caution on fixing. A twelve-month fixed saver locks your rate for a year, so fixing now, ahead of a rise the Bank has said it thinks more likely, means taking the wrong side of its own stated direction. That is a consideration, not a recommendation: your own cash-flow needs come first, and a fix you cannot break is the wrong product if the money might be needed for tax.
What to do before Thursday
A short checklist, in order:
- Check your savings rate today. Log in, read the number, compare it with 3.75%. If it is far below, look at what your own provider offers new savers before you look elsewhere.
- If you are on a tracker, work out the quarter-point cost. Multiply your balance by 0.0025 for the annual figure, divide by 12 for the monthly one. Decide now whether you would absorb it or act on it.
- Do not re-price any late-payment claims. Invoices going late in 2026 run at 11.75% whatever happens on 5 November. The rate that matters is the one on 31 December 2026, for debts going late from January.
- Diary 2 January 2027. Check Bank Rate on 31 December 2026 and update your templates and the figure in your payment terms. That is when a November rise actually reaches your invoices.
- Read the Monetary Policy Report, not just the headline. If your fixed mortgage ends in the next six months, the report’s forecasts shape your next deal more than the decision itself.
What if they hold?
A hold is a real possibility: the committee voted 6 to 3 to hold in September, and six holds in a row is the recent pattern. If they hold again, your tracker payment does not change, your savings rate does not have to change, and statutory interest stays at 11.75% for 2026 debts and 12% only if Bank Rate is higher on 31 December. The checklist above still applies, because the 31 December reference date is what sets your 2027 rate either way.
The one thing a hold would not do is settle the question. The next decision is 17 December, and the same inflation pressure would still be there. If you are making a decision that depends on where rates go, such as fixing a mortgage or a savings account, base it on your own tolerance for being wrong, not on a single meeting.
Frequently asked questions
Will a rate rise on 5 November increase the interest I can charge on a late invoice?
Not for any invoice going late in 2026. Statutory interest uses the Bank Rate in force on 30 June or 31 December, so a November rise only affects debts going late from 1 January 2027, at 12% a year if Bank Rate is 4% on 31 December 2026.
What is the statutory interest rate right now?
11.75% a year: 8% over Bank Rate of 3.75%, the rate in force on 30 June 2026. That rate applies to any business-to-business debt that goes late between 1 July and 31 December 2026. Add £40, £70 or £100 fixed compensation depending on the size of the debt.
Does the decision affect my fixed-rate mortgage?
No, not directly. Your payments stay the same until the fix ends. What matters for your next fix is the Bank’s forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report, because fixed pricing follows expectations of future Bank Rate.
When will we know?
Thursday 5 November 2026 at 12:00 UK time, with the minutes and the Monetary Policy Report published at the same time. The next decision after that is 17 December 2026.
Where to check the numbers yourself
Bank Rate and the next decision date are on the Bank of England’s Bank Rate page. The statutory interest rules, including the 8% margin and the fixed sums, are on GOV.UK’s late commercial payments page. The reference-date rule, that the rate in force on 30 June or 31 December sets the following six months, is in the Late Payment of Commercial Debts (Rate of Interest) (No. 3) Order 2002. All figures in this article were checked against those sources on 31 October 2026.